Development and validation of models based on clinical and CT features: multivariate analysis for predicting vascular invasion in non-small cell lung cancer
Introduction
Lung cancer is a topic of great concern worldwide, with the highest incidence and mortality rate of all malignant tumors and one of the leading causes of cancer deaths (1,2). Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is the most common histopathologic subtype of lung cancer, contributing up to 80–85% of cases, with a five-year survival rate of 58–80% (2-4). Lymphovascular invasion (LVI) is one of the adverse factors related to tumor recurrence, metastasis, and poor prognosis of patients (5,6). The diagnosis of LVI mainly relies on histopathological testing. LVI is defined as tumor cell infiltration in the lumen of arteries, veins, and/or lymphatic vessels identified by hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) staining or elastic staining and immunohistochemistry, but this process is prone to problems such as sample collection limitations and the complexity of histological differential diagnosis (7). There is an urgent need to develop effective preoperative assessment methods.
At present, the prediction methods of non-invasive LVI include radiomics models, 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)-computed tomography (CT) multimodal imaging technology, biomarker detection, and so on. However, radiomics models are greatly affected by parameters and their reproducibility is limited. 18F-FDG PET/CT has radiation exposure and cost limitations. Although biomarker detection is a minimally invasive examination, its sensitivity is insufficient and its clinical promotion is limited (8-10).
CT of the chest is a common and non-invasive diagnostic tool that is commonly used for the diagnosis of lung cancer (1,11). With the development of low-dose chest CT technology and the enhancement of public health awareness, CT scanning has become one of the most popular imaging techniques, which not only helps in the early screening and diagnosis of lung cancer but also provides important support for the long-term health management of patients. Quantitative imaging of CT examination can clearly show the disease characteristics and anatomical structure such as spiculation sign, vacuole sign, and solid component proportion, and can evaluate the anatomical basis of vascular invasion (8,12). Clinical characteristics such as smoking history and tumor markers can reflect the biological characteristics of tumors, with both types of information being highly accessible and complementary. Therefore, we combined CT and clinical features to construct a multidimensional prediction model.
The aim of this study was to develop and validate a predictive model for vascular tumor thrombosis in NSCLC based on CT imaging features and clinically relevant features, and to verify the efficacy of the model through an experimental group to assist clinical identification of high-risk patients and assist pathological diagnosis. We present this article in accordance with the TRIPOD+AI reporting checklist (available at https://qims.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/qims-24-1886/rc).
Methods
This study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki and its subsequent amendments. The study had a multicenter retrospective design and was approved by the Ethics Committees of Tongde Hospital of Zhejiang Province (No. 2022-029-JY, center 1), Anqing Municipal Hospital (No. 83230471, center 2), and Taizhou Municipal Hospital (No. LWYJ2023059, center 3). The need for written informed consent was waived because of the retrospective observational nature of the research.
Patients
A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the hospital electronic medical record system. A total of 2,830 lung cancer patients from centers 1 and 2 from January 2015 to December 2023 were divided into a training group and a validation group according to a 7:3 ratio; further, 275 lung cancer patients from center 3 from January to December 2024 were selected as an external validation group.
The inclusion criteria for this study were as follows (Figure 1): (I) confirmation of malignant tumor through postoperative pathology; (II) patients who underwent a chest CT scan within one month before the operation; (III) patients with complete clinical and pathological data; (IV) patients with disease intervention who did not receive neoadjuvant chemotherapy or radiotherapy before surgery.
The exclusion criteria were as follows: (I) the histopathological diagnosis was pulmonary metastasis tumor, atypical adenomatous hyperplasia (AAH)/adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS), minimally invasive adenocarcinoma (MIA), or small cell lung cancer (SCLC); (II) a time interval exceeding one month between imaging examination and pathological results; (III) clinical data could not be found or were incomplete; (IV) CT image quality was unqualified, such as motion artifacts, metal artifacts, and so on.
CT examination
The CT images were acquired using multiple CT scanners, including the Optima CT 680 Quantum (GE Healthcare, Chicago, IL, USA), SOMATOM Definition Flash (Siemens, Erlangen, Germany), LightSpeed 16 (GE Healthcare), and Incisive CT Power (Philips, Amsterdam, Netherlands). All images were reconstructed with a slice thickness ranging from 0.625 to 2 mm. With the patient in the supine position, the scan range was from the apex to the base of the lung, and the scan was taken at the end of inspiration.
The scanning parameters used were as follows: tube voltage, 120 kV; tube current, 250–300 mA; matrix, 512×512; collimation, 0.6 or 0.625 mm; lung window width was set to 1,500 Hounsfield units (HU) with a window level of −600 HU; and the width of the mediastinum window was set to 400 HU with a window level of 40 HU.
Clinical and histopathological data
The electronic medical records of the study population were searched and the following features were recorded: sex, age, smoking status, clinical basic disease hypertension (HBP), clinical basic disease diabetes mellitus (DM), and laboratory tumor marker [including neuron-specific enolase (NSE), squamous epithelial cell carcinoma antigen (SCC), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), and cytokeratin-19 fragment (CYFRA21-1) and other abnormal indicators].
The diagnosis of LVI was made by double-blind evaluation. Two experienced pathologists (with 12 and 15 years of experience in pathology, respectively) evaluated the surgically resected NSCLC and determined the presence of LVI sections. All sections were stained with H&E, and the intravascular tumor cell mass was evaluated by two pathologists independently. Lymphatic/vascular invasion was confirmed by immunohistochemical staining in suspected cases. Cases of disagreement were reviewed by a third senior pathologist (20 years of experience) to reach a consensus. Three-level criteria were used: clear tumor emboli (positive), suspicious lesions (uncertain), and no evidence (negative).
CT image data acquisition
Blinded to the clinical and histopathological results, two thoracic radiologists (5 and 18 years of experience in chest imaging diagnosis, respectively) reviewed every image adhering to the inclusion and exclusion criteria of lung and mediastinal window characteristics. Any disagreement in describing semantic features was resolved by a consensus read.
Nodule types were classified visually into three subgroups: pure ground-glass nodule (pGGN: no solid component), mixed ground-glass nodule (mGGN), and solid nodule (SN). mGGN consolidation/tumor ratio (CTR) was calculated as follows: maximum slice of lesion, proportion of solid components in mGGN = (maximum diameter of solid component/maximum diameter of the ground-glass component) ×100%.
CT image evaluation features included the following: (I) location of lesion; (II) mGGN CTR: Type 1 (0%), Type 2 (<25%), Type 3 (<50%), Type 4 (<75%), Type 5 (<100%), and Type 6 (100%); (III) dimensions: long diameter of the largest cross section of the lesion (LD), short diameter (SD), ratio of long and short diameters (LD/SD); (IV) CT value: within the lesion, avoiding the areas of blood vessels, calcification, hemorrhage, and cystic degeneration, draw the region of interest (ROI) to measure the maximum/minimum/mean/standard deviation of CT attenuation values; (V) shape: round (LD/SD ≤1.2), oval (LD/SD >1.2), irregular; (VI) lobulation; (VII) spiculation: short spiculation (spiculate length <5 mm), long spiculation (spiculate length <5 mm); (VIII) vacuole sign: Type 1 (none), Type 2 (size of vacuoles <5 mm), Type 3 (size of vacuoles ≥5 mm), cavity and pulmonary diseases that require evaluation including emphysema, bullae, ventilation-perfusion imbalance, interstitial lung disease, bronchiectasis, or air bronchogram.
Statistical methods
All statistical analyses were performed using the software SPSS 26.0.0 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY, USA) and GraphPad Prism version 9.0.0 (GraphPad Software, San Diego, CA, USA). In qualitative data, the chi-square test and Fisher’s exact probability test were used to compare differences. In the quantitative data, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to determine the normality of the data. Quantitative data conforming to a normal distribution were expressed as means ± standard deviations, and the differences were compared by independent sample t-test; the quantitative data that did not conform to a normal distribution were expressed as median and quartile, and the Mann-Whitney U-test was used to compare the differences. In univariate variables, statistically significant risk factors with P<0.05 were analyzed and included in binary logistic regression, with P<0.05 indicating statistical significance, and confounding variables were removed to screen out independent risk factors to draw the forest map. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the effectiveness of each model, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated. The sensitivity and specificity corresponding to the best Youden index of the output results were used to evaluate the prediction accuracy of the model, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test in binary logistic regression was used to evaluate the calibration degree of the model to judge the calibration effect of the model. A nomogram was created by assigning a score to each independent risk factor using R statistical software (The R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria). The total benefit to the population was assessed using the clinical impact curve (CIC).
Results
Clinical and histopathological characteristics
The training set included 1,981 patients with NSCLC, 1,866 (94.1%) of whom did not have LVI (LVI−; Figure 2A,2B) (1,104 women, 762 men; mean age 61.15±10.90 years) and 115 of whom had LVI (LVI+; Figure 2C,2D) (53 women, 62 men; mean age 62.25±8.91 years). In the univariate analysis, there was no significant difference in the distribution of age between the LVI+ group and the LVI− group (P>0.05); however, there were significant differences in gender (P=0.006), smoking, HBP, DM, and laboratory tumor markers (all P<0.001). After multivariate binary logistic regression analysis, smoking status, DM, and laboratory tumor markers were identified as independent risk factors for LVI+ (all P<0.05). The clinicopathological characteristics of the patients in the training set, validation set, and external validation set are shown in Table 1.
Table 1
| Characteristics | Training cohort (n=1,981) | Validation cohort (n=849) | Ex-validation cohort (n=275) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LVI− (n=1,866) | LVI+ (n=115) | Uni P | Multi P | LVI− (n=797) | LVI+ (n=52) | Multi P | LVI− (n=242) | LVI+ (n=33) | Multi P | |||
| Gender | 0.006* | 0.691 | ||||||||||
| Female | 1,104 (59.2) | 53 (46.1) | 465 (58.3.3) | 18 (34.6) | 126 (52.1) | 16 (48.5) | ||||||
| Male | 762 (40.8) | 62 (53.9) | 332 (41.7.7) | 34 (65.4) | 116 (47.9) | 17 (51.5) | ||||||
| Age (years) | 61.15±10.90 | 62.25±8.91 | 0.209 | NA | 60.80±10.93 | 63.83±10.39 | 62.96±10.32 | 66.52±10.54 | ||||
| Smoke | <0.001* | 0.001* | 0.818 | 0.303 | ||||||||
| Never | 1,605 (86.0) | 78 (67.8) | 678 (85.1) | 41 (78.8) | 191 (78.9) | 26 (78.8) | ||||||
| Current | 165 (8.8) | 25 (21.7) | 67 (8.4) | 5 (9.6) | 39 (16.1) | 4 (12.1) | ||||||
| Former | 96 (5.1) | 12 (10.5) | 52 (6.5) | 6 (11.6) | 12 (5.0) | 3 (9.1) | ||||||
| HBP | <0.001* | 0.510 | ||||||||||
| No | 1,694 (90.8) | 92 (80.0) | 712 (89.3) | 42 (80.8) | 154 (63.9) | 15 (45.5) | ||||||
| Yes | 172 (9.2) | 23 (20.0) | 85 (10.7) | 10 (19.2) | 87 (36.1) | 18 (54.5) | ||||||
| DM | <0.001* | <0.001* | 0.432 | 0.910 | ||||||||
| No | 1,813 (97.2) | 102 (88.7) | 772 (96.9) | 49 (94.2) | 210 (86.8) | 30 (90.9) | ||||||
| Yes | 53 (2.8) | 13 (11.3) | 25 (3.1) | 3 (5.8) | 32 (13.2) | 3 (9.1) | ||||||
| Tumor indicator | <0.001* | 0.001* | 0.275 | 0.001* | ||||||||
| Normal | 1,379 (73.9) | 63 (54.8) | 584 (73.3) | 32 (61.5) | 197 (81.4) | 15 (45.5) | ||||||
| Abnormal | 487 (26.1) | 52 (45.2) | 213 (26.7) | 20 (38.5) | 45 (18.6) | 18 (54.5) | ||||||
Continuous variables are presented as mean ± standard deviation and compared using independent sample t-tests. Categorical variables are presented as n (%) and compared using Pearson’s χ2 test, Spearman’s χ2 test, or Fisher’s exact test. *, P<0.05 was considered statistically significant. DM, diabetes mellitus; HBP, hypertension; LVI−, non-lymphovascular invasion; LVI+, lymphovascular invasion; NA, not available.
CT imaging findings
The univariate analysis of CT findings showed no differences in terms of ventilation-perfusion imbalance, interstitial lung disease, bronchiectasis, multiple lung comorbidity, shape, calcification, and LD/SD (all P>0.05); however, there were significant differences in location (P=0.002), air bronchogram (P=0.005), emphysema/bullae, CTR, lobulation, spiculation, vacuole sign, border sign, LD, SD, CTmax, CTmin, CTmean, and CTsd (all P<0.001). After multivariate binary logistic regression and removal of confounding factors, CTR and vacuole sign (both P<0.001) were shown to be independent risk factors for LVI+. The CT imaging features of the patients in the training set, validation set, and external validation set are shown in Tables 2,3.
Table 2
| Characteristics | Training cohort (n=1,981) | Validation cohort (n=849) | Ex-validation cohort (n=275) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LVI− (n=1,866) | LVI+ (n=115) | Uni P | Multi P | LVI− (n=797) | LVI+ (n=52) | Multi P | LVI− (n=242) | LVI+ (n=33) | Multi P | |||
| Emphysema/bullae | <0.001* | 0.531 | ||||||||||
| No | 1,557 (83.4) | 78 (67.8) | 660 (82.8) | 32 (61.5) | 182 (75.2) | 26 (78.8) | ||||||
| Yes | 309 (16.6) | 37 (12.2) | 137 (17.2) | 20 (38.5) | 60 (24.8) | 7 (21.2) | ||||||
| Uneven ventilation-perfusion | 0.318 | NA | ||||||||||
| No | 1,610 (86.3) | 103 (89.6) | 697 (87.5) | 44 (84.6) | 206 (85.1) | 30 (90.9) | ||||||
| Yes | 256 (13.7) | 12 (10.4) | 100 (12.5) | 8 (15.4) | 36 (14.9) | 3 (9.1) | ||||||
| ILD | 0.253 | NA | ||||||||||
| No | 1,830 (98.1) | 115 (100.0) | 787 (98.7) | 51 (98.1) | 231 (95.5) | 32 (97.0) | ||||||
| Yes | 36 (1.9) | 0 (0) | 10 (1.3) | 1 (1.9) | 11 (4.5) | 1 (3.0) | ||||||
| Bronchiectasis | >0.99 | NA | ||||||||||
| No | 1,841 (98.7) | 113 (98.3) | 790 (99.1) | 52 (100.0) | 233 (96.3) | 32 (97.0) | ||||||
| Yes | 25 (1.3) | 2 (1.7) | 7 (0.9) | 0 (0.00) | 9 (3.7) | 1 (3.0) | ||||||
| Mixed | 0.564 | NA | ||||||||||
| No | 1,797 (96.3) | 109 (94.8) | 778 (97.6) | 47 (90.4) | 219 (90.5) | 33 (100.0) | ||||||
| Yes | 69 (3.7) | 6 (5.2) | 19 (2.4) | 5 (9.6) | 23 (9.5) | 0 (0) | ||||||
| CTR | <0.001* | <0.001* | <0.001* | <0.001* | ||||||||
| 0 | 500 (26.8) | 4 (3.5) | 218 (27.4) | 1 (1.9) | 36 (14.9) | 1 (3.0) | ||||||
| ≤25% | 511 (27.4) | 3 (2.6) | 214 (26.9) | 1 (1.9) | 38 (15.7) | 1 (3.0) | ||||||
| ≤50% | 127 (6.8) | 3 (2.6) | 52 (6.5) | 2 (3.8) | 27 (11.2) | 0 (0) | ||||||
| ≤75% | 117 (6.3) | 8 (7.0) | 66 (8.3) | 5 (9.6) | 29 (12.0) | 0 (0) | ||||||
| <100% | 147 (7.9) | 18 (15.7) | 49 (6.1) | 8 (15.4) | 38 (15.7) | 2 (6.1) | ||||||
| 100% | 464 (24.8) | 79 (68.6) | 198 (24.8) | 35 (67.4) | 74 (30.6) | 29 (87.9) | ||||||
| Location | 0.002* | 0.066 | ||||||||||
| Right upper lobe | 604 (32.4) | 28 (24.3) | 261 (32.7) | 14 (26.9) | 72 (29.8) | 7 (21.2) | ||||||
| Right middle lobe | 142 (7.6) | 9 (7.8) | 47 (5.9) | 6 (11.5) | 22 (9.1) | 2 (6.1) | ||||||
| Right lower lobe | 342 (18.3) | 20 (17.4) | 166 (20.8) | 13 (25.0) | 57 (23.6) | 7 (21.2) | ||||||
| Left upper lobe | 512 (27.4) | 26 (22.6) | 196 (24.7) | 10 (19.2) | 64 (26.4) | 11 (33.3) | ||||||
| Left lower lobe | 266 (14.3) | 32 (27.9) | 127 (15.9) | 9 (17.4) | 27 (11.2) | 6 (18.2) | ||||||
| Morphology | 0.820 | NA | ||||||||||
| Round | 66 (3.5) | 3 (2.6) | 33 (4.1) | 3 (5.8) | 30 (12.4) | 1 (3.0) | ||||||
| Oval | 210 (11.3) | 12 (10.4) | 110 (13.8) | 6 (11.5) | 16 (6.6) | 0 (0) | ||||||
| Irregular | 1,590 (85.2) | 100 (87.0) | 654 (82.1) | 43 (82.7) | 196 (81.0) | 32 (97.0) | ||||||
| Lobulation | <0.001* | 0.396 | ||||||||||
| No | 587 (31.5) | 19 (16.5) | 275 (34.5) | 14 (26.9) | 38 (15.7) | 0 (0) | ||||||
| Yes | 1,279 (68.5) | 96 (83.5) | 522 (65.5) | 38 (73.1) | 204 (84.3) | 33 (100.0) | ||||||
| Spiculation | <0.001* | 0.866 | ||||||||||
| No | 1,127 (60.4) | 35 (30.4) | 506 (63.5) | 24 (46.2) | 134 (55.4) | 16 (48.5) | ||||||
| Short | 540 (28.9) | 64 (55.7) | 207 (26.0) | 24 (46.2) | 84 (34.7) | 8 (24.2) | ||||||
| Long | 199 (10.7) | 16 (13.9) | 84 (10.5) | 4 (7.6) | 24 (9.9) | 9 (27.3) | ||||||
| Vacuole sign | <0.001* | <0.001* | 0.328 | 0.038* | ||||||||
| No | 1,514 (81.1) | 81 (70.4) | 652 (81.8) | 38 (73.1) | 209 (86.4) | 25 (75.8) | ||||||
| <5 mm | 239 (12.8) | 19 (16.5) | 104 (13.0) | 11 (21.2) | 29 (12.0) | 6 (18.2) | ||||||
| ≥5 mm | 107 (5.7) | 9 (7.8) | 38 (4.8) | 3 (5.8) | 3 (1.2) | 2 (6.1) | ||||||
| Cavity | 6 (0.4) | 6 (5.3) | 3 (0.4) | 0 (0.0) | 1 (0.4) | 0 (0) | ||||||
| Air bronchogram | 0.005* | 0.101 | ||||||||||
| No | 1,468 (78.7) | 80 (69.6) | 640 (80.4) | 40 (76.9) | 190 (78.5) | 27 (81.8) | ||||||
| Yes | 398 (21.3) | 35 (30.4) | 137 (19.6) | 12 (23.1) | 52 (21.5) | 6 (18.2) | ||||||
| Calcification | 0.838 | NA | ||||||||||
| No | 1,846 (98.9) | 113 (98.3) | 790 (99.1) | 51 (98.1) | 239 (98.8) | 31 (93.9) | ||||||
| Yes | 20 (1.1) | 2 (1.7) | 7 (0.9) | 1 (1.9) | 3 (1.2) | 2 (6.1) | ||||||
| Border sign | <0.001* | 0.371 | ||||||||||
| No | 1,732 (92.8) | 94 (81.7) | 745 (93.5) | 41 (78.8) | 236 (97.5) | 23 (69.7) | ||||||
| Yes | 134 (7.2) | 21 (18.3) | 52 (6.5) | 11 (21.2) | 6 (2.5) | 10 (30.3) | ||||||
Data are presented as n (%) and compared using Pearson’s χ2 test, Spearman’s χ2 test, or Fisher’s exact test. *, P<0.05 was considered statistically significant. CT, computed tomography; CTR, consolidation/tumor ratio of mixed ground-glass nodule; ILD, interstitial lung disease; LVI−, non-lymphovascular invasion; LVI+, lymphovascular invasion; NA, not available.
Table 3
| Characteristics | Training cohort (n=1,981) | Validation cohort (n=849) | Ex-validation cohort (n=275) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LVI− (n=1,866) | LVI+ (n=115) | Uni P | Multi P | LVI− (n=797) | LVI+ (n=52) | LVI− (n=242) | LVI+ (n=33) | |||
| LD, mm | 17.08±6.17 | 21.27±5.82 | <0.001* | 0.430 | 17.02±6.19 | 20.02±6.12 | 15.21±6.17 | 20.92±6.39 | ||
| SD, mm | 12.85±5.07 | 16.23±5.05 | <0.001* | 0.911 | 12.85±5.03 | 15.67±5.45 | 11.22±4.93 | 16.35±5.31 | ||
| LD/SD | 1.37±0.29 | 1.34±0.23 | 0.236 | NA | 1.36±0.30 | 1.31±0.25 | 1.41±0.34 | 1.31±0.27 | ||
| CTmax value | 69.67±195.50 | 168.56±99.82 | <0.001* | 0.094 | 68.71±199.65 | 151.29±80.58 | 3.14±234.08 | 179.88±136.16 | ||
| CTmin value | −224.21±238.69 | −94.38±123.54 | <0.001* | 0.540 | −221.10±236.03 | −88.96±96.51 | −326.29±288.15 | −202.30±218.77 | ||
| CTmean value | −71.83±195.37 | 36.64±77.34 | <0.001* | 0.485 | −72.89±198.20 | 31.12±52.07 | −161.96±241.37 | 4.42±149.64 | ||
| CTsd value | 86.29±52.49 | 62.39±37.98 | <0.001* | 0.477 | 87.03±48.74 | 58.75±32.88 | 85.23±53.87 | 81.12±29.45 | ||
Continuous variables are presented as mean ± standard deviation and compared using independent sample t-tests. *, P<0.05 was considered statistically significant. CT, computed tomography; LD, long diameter; LVI−, non-lymphovascular invasion; LVI+, lymphovascular invasion; NA, not available; SD, short diameter.
Performance of the model
According to the independent risk factors such as smoking, DM, laboratory tumor markers, CTR, and vacuole sign the model is established and the forest plot is drawn in Figure 3. The ROC curves of the training, validation, and external validation sets are plotted in Figure 4, the calibration curves are plotted in Figure 5, and the CIC curves are plotted in Figure 6. In the training set, the model AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.836 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.806–0.867], 65.2%, 92.1%, and 63.5%, respectively; in the validation set, the model AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.803 (95% CI: 0.755–0.852), 71.6%, 82.7%, and 70.9%, respectively; and in the external validation set, the model AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.845 (0.775–0.916), 70.9%, 87.8%, and 68.6%, respectively. The model performance is shown in Table 4. The calibration curves of the training set, validation set, and external validation set models are drawn by the x-axis representing the predicted probability and the Y-axis representing the actual probability, the long diagonal dashed line representing the perfect prediction curve of the ideal model, and the short-dashed line representing the actual curve of the model, of which closer fit to the long diagonal dashed line represents a better prediction. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed χ2=9.765 and P=0.282 for the training set, and χ2=3.882 and P=0.868 for the validation set, indicating that the model was well calibrated. The negative predictive values of the training set, validation set, and external validation set were 99.2%, 98.4%, and 97.6%, respectively (Figure 7). The nomogram was constructed to determine the risk classification for each patient (Figure 8). The value of each variable was located on the corresponding axis, and a line was drawn upwards to determine the corresponding score. All scores were summed up to a line drawn down to the survival axis to determine the probability of LVI of NSCLC in an individual patient.
Table 4
| Model type | AUC (95% CI) | Accuracy (%) | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Training cohort | 0.836 (0.806–0.867) | 65.2 | 92.1 | 63.5 |
| Validation cohort | 0.803 (0.755–0.852) | 71.6 | 82.7 | 70.9 |
| External validation cohort | 0.845 (0.775–0.916) | 70.9 | 87.8 | 68.6 |
AUC, area under the curve; CI, confidence interval.
Discussion
In reviewing the literature, we found that previous studies of cancer LVI have focused on gastric cancer (13), breast cancer (14), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (15), and colorectal cancer (16); as well as studying the prognosis, survival, and risk of recurrence in NSCLC, there are fewer predictive diagnostics regarding preoperative NSCLC.
Accordingly, in the present study, we constructed and validated a model for predicting LVI in lung cancer based on clinical and CT images features, which yielded AUCs of 0.836 and 0.803 for the training and validation sets, respectively, which were higher than those of the utilized conventional model of Nie et al. (9) (AUC of 0.818 and 0.800 for the training and test sets, respectively), and had a higher predictive value and clinical calibration ability.
One of the major causes of lung cancer-related deaths is metastasis, which is a complex process closely related to LVI. Studies have shown that LVI is a high-risk pathological feature of NSCLC, affecting lymph node metastasis (LNM) and tumor lymph node metastasis stage (TNM), as well as overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS), with LVI+ patients having lower OS compared with LVI− patients (17); TNM is an important factor influencing the clinical decision-making (18), which also emphasizes the importance of preoperative prediction of LVI in NSCLC.
In this study, smoking status was found to be an independent risk factor for LVI in NSCLC, which affects the incidence and survival of patients with lung cancer, as reported in a previous article (1). Current and previous history of smoking have always been high-risk factors for lung cancer because tobacco smoke contains more than 7,000 compounds, many of which can increase the risk of lung cancer. In addition, smoking and niacin share an important link—smoking will interfere with the normal metabolism of niacin, and one study has shown that niacin end metabolites can lead to vascular endothelial cell damage, increase the risk of vascular inflammation, exacerbate thrombosis, and increase the risk of LVI, thus affecting morbidity and survival (19).
LVI affects the survival of lung cancer patients and is a poor prognostic factor. The study by Hernandez et al. (20), among others, showed that lung cancer patients with comorbid DM have decreased survival and prognostic outcomes, which may also be related to the fact that DM can exacerbate vascular inflammation as well as thrombosis. The hyperglycemia environment in diabetic patients promotes inflammation and triggers the secretion of vascular endothelial growth factor, which promotes tumor angiogenesis and progression. These changes make the metabolism of NSCLC tumor cells become dysregulated and adapt to the hyperglycemia microenvironment by metabolic reprogramming, which may accelerate the formation of intravascular tumor thrombus (19,21,22). The present study analyzed the effect of underlying diseases on LVI separately, unlike that of Yang et al. (11), who combined the underlying diseases into one analysis; separate analyses are more conducive to clinical precision on the extent of disease impact on LVI.
Abnormalities in tumor markers are associated with the stage and prognosis of lung cancer and can increase the sensitivity of lung cancer diagnosis. Tumor markers are biological substances produced by tumor cells or by the body in response to tumor tissue. The levels of these substances fluctuate abnormally during tumor development due to the genetic activity of the tumor cells. Using the immune response properties of these markers, we can identify and differentiate between different types of tumors and monitor the state of tumor activity (9,23). In this study, we analyzed NSE, SCC, CEA, and CYFRA21-1, which are highly correlated with lung cancer. Abnormalities in these indices are usually related to the expression of glycoproteins, lipoproteins, and other substances that are produced by lung cancer in the process of development; therefore, we recorded analysis of NSE/SCC/CEA/CYFRA21-1 and other abnormal tumor indicators. We believe that serum abnormalities can, to some extent, indicate LVI of the tumor. Abnormalities in SCC and CEA are commonly seen in patients with lung squamous cell carcinoma. The SCC component is more prevalent in the cytoplasm of squamous cells; although it was first isolated from squamous cell carcinoma tissue of the cervix, it has since been found in cancers of the pharynx and other locations. Although not as pronounced as in cervical carcinomas, elevated levels of SCC can help in the detection of NSCLC (23). NSE and CYFRA21-1 have important value in the diagnosis and treatment of lung cancer.
Another important predictor associated with LVI in NSCLC is CTR, and in the present study, the more solid components in patients presenting LVI+, the greater the probability of disease (type 6 in 114 out of 167 cases, or 68.2%, and type 5 in 26 out of 167, or 15.5%), which is well explained by the fact that the degree of the lesion is positively correlated with the proportion of solid components and that the solid component is considered to be an infiltrative lesion and is also considered to be one of the indications for surgery. Additionally, the solid component of mGGN was more prone to and had a higher mutation rate of EGFR, one of the lung adenocarcinoma genes (24,25); this also suggests that LVI is a poor prognostic factor for LVI in NSCLC.
The vacuole sign is defined as a low-density area with a lesion diameter <5 mm, which is an important sign of early lung cancer and malignant ground-glass opacity (24) is also more likely to occur in squamous cell carcinoma (23). Tumor spread through air spaces (STAS) is an aggressive mode of lung cancer spreading that occurs when tumor cells or cell clusters spread along the alveolar walls in the alveolar lumen beyond the margins of the main tumor. STAS is associated with poor prognosis of lung cancer and also plays an important role in lung cancer staging. The diagnosis of STAS mainly relies on pathological tissue examination and its preoperative identification is complicated. There are limitations to intraoperative frozen section analysis; however, we can observe it with the aid of the sign of vacuole sign, which is closely related to STAS. Studies have shown that the vacuole sign is an independent risk factor for NSCLC STAS, which is one of the high-risk factors for recurrent metastasis of lung cancer (26,27), which is also consistent with the findings of this study.
The diagnosis of LVI relies primarily on pathologic tissue results, and there are difficulties in the diagnostic process. In addition to the complexity of the disease’s progression, the compression of tissues during surgery and the preparation of pathologic sections, such as the atrophy of alveolar structures and the increase in the number of alveoli after cryosections, lead to difficulty in achieving accurate diagnostic results. In this case, the pathologist can be alerted to the likelihood of the presence of the disease and improve the pathologic diagnosis by incorporating high-risk factors from the research results. Furthermore, the diagnosis of LVI in combination with high-risk factors can inform clinical treatment. Although the current treatment is mainly focused on surgical resection, the combination of neoadjuvant chemotherapy can improve the prognosis for patients. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy can benefit LVI+ patients preoperatively, and neoadjuvant therapy can reduce tumor size and stage, decrease the risk of recurrence of lung cancer, improve survival, and even, in some patients, enhance OS compared with surgical-only treatments.
This study has some limitations: this is a retrospective study, so there were some inevitable selection biases. There is an urgent need for prospective studies that are strictly adapted. Second, the low positive prediction rate of the confusion matrix in this study may be due to the large gap between the positive and negative sample sizes in the sample. Finally, continuous variables such as LD, SD, CTmax, CTmin, CTmean, and CTsd were extracted from CT images, and none of them were ultimately included as independent risk factors for predicting performance after binary logistic regression analyses, which may be related to the artificially selected ROIs for extracting image features. Therefore, in our future research, we will introduce a deep learning-based multimodal method, which is a longitudinal multimodal Transformer model that integrates multi-dimensional data such as imaging data [such as CT, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), ultrasound, etc.], clinical data (such as symptoms, medical history, laboratory test results, etc.) from electronic medical records, genomic data, and so on (28). We will endeavor to explore the correlation between different modal data, make up for the deficiency of a single modal model, improve the performance and discrimination of the model, and improve the accuracy of disease prediction, so as to better assist clinical practice and help more patients. In conclusion, this study constructed and validated a model to predict LVI in NSCLC by combining clinical indicators and CT image features, a non-invasive examination method, which can reduce the trauma of patients, provide an effective auxiliary diagnostic tool for the clinic, facilitate its preoperative management, effectively improve the pathological diagnosis of lung cancer, and provide an important reference for the clinical treatment.
Conclusions
Our research shows that the model established by combining features such as smoking history, diabetes history, tumor markers, CTR, and vacuole signs can effectively predict LVI in NSCLC and provide an important reference for pathological diagnosis and clinical treatment.
Acknowledgments
None.
Footnote
Reporting Checklist: The authors have completed the TRIPOD+AI reporting checklist. Available at https://qims.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/qims-24-1886/rc
Data Sharing Statement: Available at https://qims.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/qims-24-1886/dss
Funding: This research was supported by
Conflicts of Interest: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form (available at https://qims.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/qims-24-1886/coif). This research was supported by the Medical Health Science and Technology Project of Zhejiang Province, China (Grant No. 2022KY702 to J.W.), Scientific research project of Anhui Higher Education Institutions, China (Grant No. 2023AH050608 to H.S.) and Key Research and Development Program of Anhui Province, China (Grant No. 2022e07020033 to Z.X.). The other authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.
Ethical Statement: The authors are accountable for all aspects of the work in ensuring that questions related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of the work are appropriately investigated and resolved. This study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki and its subsequent amendments and was approved by the Ethics Committees in Clinical Research of Tongde Hospital of Zhejiang Province (No. 2022029-JY), Anqing Municipal Hospital (No. 83230471), and Taizhou Municipal Hospital (No. LWYJ2023059). The requirement for individual consent was waived due to the retrospective nature of the analysis.
Open Access Statement: This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), which permits the non-commercial replication and distribution of the article with the strict proviso that no changes or edits are made and the original work is properly cited (including links to both the formal publication through the relevant DOI and the license). See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
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