Stroke subtypes risk prediction and detection using retinal vascular structure and oxygen saturation analysis
Original Article

Stroke subtypes risk prediction and detection using retinal vascular structure and oxygen saturation analysis

Kun Chen1,2,3#, Yang Zhang2,4#, Wenteng Gao1,2,3, Hui Liu1,2,3, Jicheng Liu1,2,3, Ronald X. Xu1,2,3, Ming Wu4*, Mingzhai Sun1,2,3*

1Department of Precision Machinery and Precision Instrumentation, School of Engineering Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China; 2Suzhou Institute for Advanced Research, University of Science and Technology of China, Suzhou, China; 3School of Biomedical Engineering, Division of Life and Medicine, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China; 4Department of Rehabilitation, The First Affiliated Hospital of USTC, Division of Life Sciences and Medicine, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China

Contributions: (I) Conception and design: K Chen, Y Zhang, RX Xu, M Wu, M Sun; (II) Administrative support: RX Xu, M Wu, M Sun; (III) Provision of study materials or patients: Y Zhang, M Wu; (IV) Collection and assembly of data: K Chen, Y Zhang; (V) Data analysis and interpretation: K Chen, Y Zhang, H Liu, W Gao; (VI) Manuscript writing: All authors; (VII) Final approval of manuscript: All authors.

#These authors contributed equally to this work.

*These authors contributed equally to this work as co-senior authors.

Correspondence to: Mingzhai Sun, PhD. Department of Precision Machinery and Precision Instrumentation, School of Engineering Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China; Suzhou Institute for Advanced Research, University of Science and Technology of China, Suzhou, China; School of Biomedical Engineering, Division of Life and Medicine, University of Science and Technology of China, No. 166 Ren’ai Road, Suzhou 215123, China. Email: mingzhai@ustc.edu.cn; Ming Wu, BS. Department of Rehabilitation, The First Affiliated Hospital of USTC, Division of Life Sciences and Medicine, University of Science and Technology of China, No. 96 Jinzhai Road, Hefei 230001, China. Email: wumingkf@ustc.edu.cn.

Background: Stroke presents a substantial health burden, emphasizing the crucial necessity for robust screening tools to gauge its severity and assess associated biomarkers. The identification of retinal biomarkers for stroke is a pivotal pursuit, enabling both early-stage risk and subsequent prognosis prediction for personalized intervention strategies. This study aims to analyze retinal blood vessel oxygen saturation (SO2) and structure across ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke subtypes compared to healthy controls. Additionally, it seeks to examine adjusted odds ratios between retinal vascular features and two stroke subtypes, employing these metrics for the classification of stroke.

Methods: This study assessed retinal images from 29 ischemic stroke patients, 23 hemorrhagic stroke patients, and 82 controls. SO2 levels in both arteries and veins were assessed across all groups, marking a pioneering exploration into the distinctive subtypes of stroke. Using statistical and deep learning techniques, we also uniquely performed comprehensive structural vascular analysis in hemorrhagic stroke patients. Logistic regression identified relationships between retinal biomarkers and stroke types. Random forest classification differentiated stroke and control based on these retinal vascular biomarkers.

Results: Ischemic stroke patients exhibited significantly higher arterial SO2 compared to controls (P<0.01), while hemorrhagic patients showed no differences (P=0.34). Both stroke groups had reduced arterial density (ischemic vs. controls: P<0.01; hemorrhagic vs. controls: P<0.01) and fractal dimensions (ischemic vs. controls: P<0.01; hemorrhagic vs. controls: P<0.01). The results of logistic regression analysis indicated a discernible relationship between these biomarkers and the occurrence of both types of strokes. Integrating functional SO2 and structural biomarkers enabled over 80% accurate classification of stroke from retinal images.

Conclusions: Our study reveals marked differences in retinal blood vessel characteristics between stroke subtypes and controls. Through logistic regression analysis, we establish a robust association between these parameters and the incidence of both ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes, enhancing our ability to anticipate stroke risk. Subsequently, we showcase the prognostic potential of retinal vascular biomarkers by innovatively analyzing retinal images through machine learning for stroke occurrence. These findings suggest that retinal biomarkers may hold potential value for risk stratification in stroke, and with further investigation, could inform broader applications in cerebrovascular health.

Keywords: Ischemic stroke; hemorrhagic stroke; retinal oxygen saturation (retinal SO2); vascular structure


Submitted Dec 01, 2024. Accepted for publication Apr 02, 2025. Published online May 26, 2025.

doi: 10.21037/qims-2024-2712


Introduction

Stroke, a leading global health concern, is ranked as the second-leading cause of death and a major contributor to disability worldwide (1-3). The prevalence and severity of stroke, particularly ischemic strokes, which account for 88% of all cases, alongside hemorrhagic strokes, constituting approximately 12%, present significant challenges in medical research and public health (4). Pu et al.’s research has demonstrated that the global incidence of ischemic stroke reached 81.72 per 100,000 in 2020, with projections suggesting an increase to 89.32 by 2030 (5). Notably, in China, stroke has been the foremost cause of death from 1990 to 2017, highlighting its critical impact on public health systems (6).

Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in exploring the retinal structure’s changes following a stroke (7-9). The retina, given its unique position as a non-invasive window into the body’s vascular system, has emerged as a potential marker for neurological diseases, offering insights into both prognostic and clinical aspects. This potential is largely attributed to the similarities between the retinal and cerebral microvasculature, their shared embryological origins, and the intricate neuronal layers (10,11). Additionally, the direct link formed by axons from the optic nerve to the brain suggests a possible association between brain damage and retinal structural changes. Beyond structural alterations, the role of retinal vascular blood oxygen saturation (SO2) is increasingly being recognized as a possible indicator of cerebral functional changes. This interest is spurred by studies showing altered SO2 in retinal vessels among individuals with neurological conditions like Alzheimer’s disease (12).

However, current research on the use of retinal vasculature in the context of stroke faces several gaps. A notable deficiency is the lack of comprehensive studies examining the relationship between retinal vascular SO2 and both ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. In hemorrhagic stroke research, although there is attention given to retinal vessel caliber, other potentially significant microvascular features such as retinal fractal dimension (FD), SO2, and indicators of vessel branching patterns remain largely unexplored (13-15). Similarly, in ischemic stroke research, there is a need for more detailed analyses of these vascular parameters and their association with stroke. Furthermore, the use of retinal vascular features as biomarkers for stroke classification is an area that has not been fully developed, despite its potential to significantly enhance the precision of stroke diagnosis and prognosis.

Our study addresses these gaps by focusing on both ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes and exploring the role of retinal vasculature in these conditions. By examining novel retinal vascular features and their correlations with stroke subtypes, this study aims to provide insights that could inform future research on stroke risk assessment and patient outcomes. We present this article in accordance with the STROBE reporting checklist (available at https://qims.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/qims-2024-2712/rc).


Methods

Figure 1 illustrates the workflow, starting with the initial data collection of fundus images from stroke patients and control subjects. Subsequently, proper deep learning methods are employed in the preprocessing procedure to accurately extract arteries, veins, optic disk (OD), and region of interest. Following this, vascular analysis is conducted to obtain parameters such as functional SO2 and vascular morphological features, including FD, density, etc. After obtaining these parameters, we conducted statistical analyses to compare the differences between stroke and control groups. Additionally, logistic regression was employed concurrently to establish the relationships between these parameters and the two stroke subtypes. Finally, stroke classification was performed through three-fold cross-validation using random forest (RF).

Figure 1 Flow of data and analysis. CRAE, central retinal arterial equivalent; CRVE, central retinal venous equivalent; RF, random forest.

Data collection and study participants

Figure 2 summarizes the participant selection process for this study, conducted at the First Affiliated Hospital of the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) from September 14, 2020 to September 14, 2021. The flowchart details the inclusion and exclusion criteria for Chinese individuals diagnosed with stroke (within six months) and healthy controls. All stroke diagnoses (hemorrhagic/ischemic subtypes) were confirmed by computed tomography (CT) and were based on the diagnostic criteria of cerebrovascular diseases in China (16). Cases with transient ischemic attack (TIA) cases explicitly excluded. Additionally, the control group also underwent CT scans to confirm the absence of stroke or other significant neurological conditions. Participants with Parkinson’s disease, Alzheimer’s disease, dementia, or diabetes history were excluded. Given the limited sample size, neither hemorrhagic nor ischemic stroke groups were subclassified within their respective categories, precluding detailed intra-group comparisons. This approach prioritized the identification of systemic retinal vascular differences between stroke subtypes (hemorrhagic vs. ischemic) and healthy controls, rather than delineating heterogeneity within each subtype.

Figure 2 Flowchart of participant selection for retinal vascular structure and function study comparing stroke subtypes and healthy controls. Initial cohorts included 34 hemorrhagic stroke, 43 ischemic stroke, and 82 control cases. Two exclusion phases were applied: (A) image quality control (cataracts, miotic pupils, fundus abnormalities), yielding 23 hemorrhagic, 29 ischemic, and 82 control cases for structural analysis; (B) blood-oxygen validity verification (fundus tessellation patterns), with no further exclusions. Final cohorts for functional analysis include 20 hemorrhagic, 20 ischemic, and 82 control cases. Representative fundus images demonstrate exclusion criteria (low-quality/excluded vs. high-quality/included cases). Boxes colored in blue and red denote structural and functional analysis stages, respectively. CT, computed tomography.

A total of 159 participants were initially enrolled, comprising 34 hemorrhagic stroke patients, 43 ischemic stroke patients, and 82 healthy controls. Retinal imaging was performed using a specialized fundus camera (OT-110M, Hefei Orbis Biotech Ltd., China) capable of simultaneous structural and blood SO2 analysis, the accuracy of which has been rigorously validated through a phantom experiment simulating the fundus (17).

As illustrated in Figure 2, the first exclusion step removed individuals with ocular conditions affecting image quality, including cataracts, miotic pupils, or fundus abnormalities (see representative retinal images in Figure 2, panels labeled “Exclusion A”). This step excluded 25 participants, leaving 134 individuals (23 hemorrhagic strokes, 29 ischemic strokes, 82 healthy controls) eligible for structural analysis of retinal vasculature. The second exclusion step focused on ensuring accurate blood SO2 measurements. Participants with fundus tessellation patterns (illustrated in Figure 2, “Exclusion B” panels) were excluded, resulting in 122 participants (20 hemorrhagic strokes, 20 ischemic strokes, 82 healthy controls) for functional analysis.

Written informed consent was obtained either from the participants or, in cases where participants lacked capacity, from their legal guardians. This study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki and its subsequent amendments. The study was approved by ethics committee of The First Affiliated Hospital of University of Science and Technology of China (No. 2020-KYLS-167). Trial registration details are available at the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ID: ChiCTR2000038731). Demographic characteristics of the final cohort are provided in Table 1.

Table 1

Demographic data of the study groups and controls

Variables Demographics Study groups
Hemorrhagic stroke Ischemic stroke Controls
Structural analysis Total 23 29 82
Gender (male/female) 17/6*** 20/9*** 35/47
Age (years) 49.6±11.0 57.2±12.8*** 50.2±9.2
Hypertension 17 (73.9)*** 22 (75.9)*** 32 (39.0)
Functional analysis Total 20 20 82
Gender (male/female) 14/6*** 14/6** 35/47
Age (years) 49.1±11.3 54.8±11.7 50.2±9.2
Hypertension 15 (75.0)*** 15 (75.0)*** 32 (39.0)

Data are presented as n, mean ± standard deviation or n (%). **, P<0.05; ***, P<0.01.

Data preprocessing and SO2 level measurement

In our analysis of retinal vascular SO2 levels and structural features, we utilized advanced techniques. Firstly, we employed the U-net model for OD segmentation, followed by the CRU-net model for retinal artery and vein segmentation, known for their accuracy in our dataset (18). To facilitate a comprehensive comparison of SO2 changes between control and stroke groups, we utilized the macular-centered region of interest (MROI) proposed by Dou et al., building upon their detailed analysis methods for SO2 levels (19).

Figure 3 illustrates the original image and the resulting pseudocolor oxygen saturation level map.

Figure 3 The two rows indicate the RGB fundus image and blood oxygen saturation in MROI. (A) The normal control group, (B) ischemic stroke, and (C) hemorrhagic stroke group, respectively. MROI, macular-centered region of interest; RGB, red-green-blue; SO2, oxygen saturation.

Vascular structural features measurement

A subject’s retinal vascular structural features were analyzed using an array of quantitative measures. These measures included vascular density, which is the ratio of the area occupied by the arterial or venous vessels to the entire area of the MROI. Vascular caliber was determined using the revised Knudtson-Parr-Hubbard formula (20), which expresses the caliber of arterial and venous vessels as the central retinal arterial equivalent (CRAE) and central retinal venous equivalent (CRVE) respectively. Vascular tortuosity, which is defined as the integral of the curvature square divided by the total path length, was calculated separately for arterial and venous vessels (21). The FD of the retinal vascular network was determined using the box-counting method on skeletonized arterial and venous vessels (22). The branching angle (BA) at branching points was measured as the angle between two child blood vessels, as defined in the study by Baker et al. (7). The branching coefficient (BC) at branching points was calculated using the widths of the three vessels at the branching point, as defined in the study by Patton et al. (23). The asymmetry factor (AF) at branching points was used to describe the asymmetry between child vessels and was measured by the ratio of the square widths of the two child vessels. The optimal ratio (OR) at vessel bifurcations was also calculated to measure the relationship between parent and daughter vessels.

Statistical analysis

Statistical analyses were conducted to describe participant characteristics using mean values with standard deviations (SDs) for continuous variables and percentages for categorical variables. Categorical variables were compared between groups using the Chi-squared test, as summarized in Table 1. Differences in continuous variables were assessed by first evaluating normality via the Shapiro-Wilk test (full results in Table S1), where a P≥0.05 was considered indicative of normally distributed data. Normally distributed data were analyzed using the independent t-test, while non-normal data were compared via the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. For all group comparisons (Chi-squared, t-test, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov), statistical significance was defined as P<0.05.

To investigate retinal vascular biomarkers in stroke subtypes, we developed two logistic regression models: Model 1 adjusted for age and sex, and Model 2 further adjusted for hypertension. Odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated per SD increase in retinal parameters using R v4.1.2. Benjamini-Hochberg false discovery rate (FDR) correction was applied to address multiple comparisons, with significance defined as P<0.05 or FDR-adjusted q<0.05.

RF classifier

The RF classifier is an ensemble method that leverages a random selection of training samples and variables to generate a collection of decision trees. These decision trees, collectively forming the RF classifier, are utilized for making predictions. Each tree is constructed by randomly selecting a subset of training samples with replacement (24).

Before proceeding with RF classification, we first conducted RF parameter significance analysis to determine the most influential features in the dataset. The underlying principle of this analysis involves systematically altering the values of each feature and observing the resulting changes in the accuracy or out-of-bag error of the RF (24). This process yields importance scores for each feature, with higher scores indicating a greater impact on the classification outcome and vice versa. By employing this approach, we identified the key parameters significantly contributing to the classification task. Subsequently, features with elevated classification importance were meticulously chosen to constitute a refined input for the RF classifier. This strategic selection not only streamlined the input dimensionality but also bolstered the model's interpretability and classification performance. Ensuring that these selected features played a pivotal role in the accurate discrimination between the stroke and control groups.

To showcase the synergistic impact of merging blood vessel functional SO2 levels with vascular structural features on classifier performance, we conducted ablation experiments. Initially, we utilized isolated blood vessel functional SO2 and vascular structural features as inputs for the classifiers. Subsequently, we introduced a combined input comprising both functional SO2 and vascular structural features to the RF classifier.

To ensure the robustness of the experiment, threefold cross-validation was employed to assess the classifier’s performance at the individual level, and the number of trees in RF was fixed at 100.

Evaluation

Accuracy (Acc), Precision (Pre), Recall (Rec), and F1-score (F1) were employed to assess the effectiveness of classification. Their definitions are as follows:

Accuracy=TP+TNTP+TN+FP+FN

Precision=TPTP+FP

Recall=TPTP+FN

F1-score=2×Precision×RecallPrecision+Recall

where TP, TN, FP, and FN represent true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative, respectively.


Results

Blood SO2 levels in stroke and control groups

Figure 4A,4B present our findings on retinal blood SO2 level. In the ischemic stroke group, both arterial and venous SO2 levels were significantly elevated compared to the control group (arterial: 97.53%±6.93% vs. 93.01%±5.21%, P<0.01; venous: 65.48%±5.91% vs. 61.99%±5.33%, P<0.01). In contrast, the hemorrhagic stroke group showed no significant difference from controls (arterial: 96.00%±7.55% vs. 93.01%±5.21%, P=0.34; venous: 62.35%±6.82% vs. 61.99%±5.33%, P=0.80).

Figure 4 Violin plots of functional SO2 and structural parameters of retinal artery and vein in the control group and two stroke sub-types. (A) The distribution of arterial functional SO2; (B) the distribution of venous functional SO2; (C-H) the distribution of arterial fractal dimension, venous fractal dimension, arterial density, venous branching angle, venous branching coefficient, and venous optimal ratio, respectively. *, P>0.05 and <0.1; ***, P<0.01. SO2, oxygen saturation.

Structural features of retinal vasculature in stroke and control groups

Figure 4C-4F highlights the differences observed in retinal vascular structural features. The ischemic group exhibited significantly reduced FD in retinal arteries compared to controls (1.064±0.031 vs. 1.089±0.031, P<0.01), while venous FD showed a marginal reduction (1.079±0.034 vs. 1.102±0.032, P=0.06). The ischemic group exhibited significantly reduced arterial density compared to controls (4.62±0.82 vs. 5.49±0.63; P<0.01), alongside a notable decrease in venous density (6.38±1.01 vs. 6.87±0.87; P=0.03). Notably, the venous BA was significantly larger in the ischemic group than in the controls (75.18°±9.28° vs. 67.64°±10.05°, P<0.01), while there was no significant difference in arterial BA.

In the hemorrhagic stroke group, arterial and venous FD were significantly lower than those in the control group (1.063±0.029 vs. 1.089±0.031 for arteries, 1.079±0.034 vs. 1.102±0.032 for veins, both P<0.01). Arterial density was also significantly reduced in the hemorrhagic group (4.90±0.70 vs. 5.49±0.63 in controls, P<0.01). The venous BA was larger in the hemorrhagic group (76.82°±11.23° vs. 67.64°±10.05° in controls, P<0.01). Additionally, as shown in Figure 4G-4H, the venous BC was significantly higher in the hemorrhagic group (1.25±0.15 vs. 1.12±0.11 in controls, P<0.01), with a similar trend observed for the venous OR, while arterial BC and OR showed no significant differences.

Other vascular parameters such as vessel tortuosity, CRAE, CRVE, and AF did not show significant differences between the stroke groups and controls. For a detailed breakdown, refer to Table S2.

Ischemic stroke associations

For ischemic stroke patients compared to control subjects, Table 2 demonstrates that arterial SO2 remained notably associated with stroke incidence, with each SD increase corresponding to a nearly twofold increase in odds (odds ratio =1.916, 95% CI: 1.078–3.598; P=0.032), though its q value (0.144) exceeded the significance threshold after correction for 18 comparisons. Similarly, venous BA showed a strong positive association (odds ratio =2.066, 95% CI: 1.208–3.736; P=0.011), but its q value (0.066) also fell short of significance. In contrast, reduced arterial FD (odds ratio =0.364, 95% CI: 0.177–0.667; P=0.002; q value =0.018) and arterial density (odds ratio = 0.278, 95% CI: 0.122–0.557; P=0.001; q value =0.018) exhibited robust inverse correlations with stroke risk. However, arteriovenous calibers (CRAE/CRVE), tortuosity, and other geometric parameters (AF, OR, BC) showed no significant links. These findings underscore arterial SO2, venous BA, and arterial geometric markers (FD, density) as potential risk indicators, though the diminished significance of arterial SO2 and venous BA after multiplicity correction highlights the need for replication in larger cohorts to confirm their clinical relevance.

Table 2

Associations between retinal parameters and ischemic stroke risk assessed by multivariable logistic regression models with Benjamini-Hochberg FDR correction

Retinal parameters Model 1 Model 2
Odds ratio (95% CI) P q value Odds ratio (95% CI) P q value
SO2 per SD increase
   Arterial 1.979 (1.122–3.696) 0.023* 0.104 1.916 (1.078–3.598) 0.032* 0.144
   Venous 1.947 (1.040–3.980) 0.049* 0.147 1.894 (1.016–3.842) 0.056 0.186
FD per SD increase
   Arterial 0.398 (0.201–0.711) 0.004* 0.036* 0.364 (0.177–0.667) 0.002* 0.018*
   Venous 0.693 (0.394–1.173) 0.183 0.458 0.574 (0.310–1.009) 0.062 0.186
Density per SD increase
   Arterial 0.282 (0.125–0.559) 0.001* 0.018* 0.278 (0.122–0.557) 0.001* 0.018*
   Venous 0.776 (0.432–1.361) 0.382 0.458 0.651 (0.343–1.182) 0.170 0.383
Tortuosity per SD increase
   Arterial 0.786 (0.442–1.309) 0.375 0.458 0.845 (0.471–1.442) 0.550 0.660
   Venous 1.181 (0.707–1.902) 0.480 0.540 0.344 (0.122–0.850) 0.681 0.721
BA per SD increase
   Arterial 0.999 (0.606–1.611) 0.997 0.997 0.985 (0.592–1.616) 0.952 0.952
   Venous 2.116 (1.260–3.762) 0.007* 0.042* 2.066 (1.208–3.736) 0.011* 0.066
BC per SD increase
   Arterial 1.275 (0.809–2.026) 0.296 0.458 1.282 (0.803–2.073) 0.300 0.520
   Venous 1.248 (0.789–1.998) 0.344 0.458 1.216 (0.757–1.986) 0.422 0.584
AF per SD increase
   Arterial 1.053 (0.681–1.674) 0.818 0.866 1.121 (0.723–1.778) 0.609 0.685
   Venous 1.303 (0.820–2.093) 0.265 0.458 1.198 (0.742–1.941) 0.457 0.588
OR per SD increase
   Arterial 1.262 (0.802–2.027) 0.320 0.458 1.271 (0.799–2.073) 0.318 0.520
   Venous 1.303 (0.816–2.117) 0.293 0.458 1.249 (0.768–2.074) 0.375 0.563
CRAE per SD increase 0.538 (0.291–0.933) 0.034* 0.122 0.617 (0.323–1.108) 0.119 0.306
CRVE per SD increase 0.733 (0.427–1.230) 0.245 0.458 0.734 (0.428–1.231) 0.247 0.494

Model 1: adjusted for age and sex; Model 2: Model 1 plus additional adjustment for hypertension. Significant findings after logistic regression (P<0.05; q<0.05) are marked with asterisk. AF, asymmetry factor; BA, branching angle; BC, branching coefficient; CRAE, central retinal artery equivalent; CRVE, central retinal vein equivalent; Density, vessel density; FD, fractal dimension; FDR, false discovery rate; OR, optimal ratio; SO2, oxygen saturation.

Hemorrhagic stroke associations

In analyses of hemorrhagic stroke risk (Table 3), neither arterial nor venous SO2 levels showed significant associations after blood pressure adjustment (Model 2: arterial SO2, odds ratio =1.499, P=0.135, q value =0.304; venous SO2, odds ratio =1.028, P=0.920, q value =0.920). However, both arterial and venous FD exhibited robust inverse associations with hemorrhagic stroke, surviving multiplicity correction (q values <0.01). Each SD decrease in arterial FD corresponded to a 64% reduction in stroke odds (odds ratio =0.357, 95% CI: 0.173–0.645; P=0.002), while venous FD showed a similar effect (odds ratio =0.360, 95% CI: 0.165–0.684; P=0.002). Arterial density demonstrated a nominally significant negative association (odds ratio =0.320, P=0.019), though its q value (0.057) approached but did not meet the significance threshold; venous density followed a comparable trend (odds ratio =0.464, P=0.031, q value =0.080). Strikingly, venous geometric markers—BA (odds ratio =2.604, 95% CI: 1.403–5.321; P=0.004, q value =0.014), BC (odds ratio =3.214, 95% CI: 1.768–6.600; P<0.001, q value <0.001), and OR (odds ratio =2.895, 95% CI: 1.609–5.800; P=0.001, q value =0.009)—showed strong positive associations with hemorrhagic stroke risk, surviving multiplicity correction. As with ischemic stroke, arteriovenous tortuosity and caliber (CRAE/CRVE) remained nonsignificant after adjustment (q values >0.05). These findings highlight vascular fractal geometry (FD) and venous structural markers (BA, BC, OR) as critical risk indicators for hemorrhagic stroke, independent of blood pressure.

Table 3

Associations between retinal parameters and hemorrhagic stroke risk assessed by multivariable logistic regression models with Benjamini-Hochberg FDR correction

Retinal parameters Model 1 Model 2
Odds ratio (95% CI) P q value Odds ratio (95% CI) P q value
SO2 per SD increase
   Arterial 1.520 (0.901–2.648) 0.121 0.727 1.499 (0.891–2.624) 0.135 0.304
   Venous 0.980 (0.571–1.702) 0.942 0.942 1.028 (0.600–1.789) 0.920 0.920
FD per SD increase
   Arterial 0.353 (0.172–0.642) 0.002* 0.009* 0.357 (0.173–0.645) 0.002* 0.009*
   Venous 0.368 (0.177–0.668) 0.003* 0.009* 0.360 (0.165–0.684) 0.002* 0.009*
Density per SD increase
   Arterial 0.498 (0.271–0.864) 0.003* 0.009* 0.320 (0.144–0.608) 0.019* 0.057
   Venous 0.642 (0.349–1.135) 0.136 0.272 0.464 (0.219–0.898) 0.031* 0.080
Tortuosity per SD increase
   Arterial 0.741 (0.392–1.267) 0.307 0.425 0.742 (0.384–1.298) 0.331 0.397
   Venous 1.369 (0.838–2.295) 0.187 0.306 1.314 (0.776–2.162) 0.257 0.378
BA per SD increase
   Arterial 1.405 (0.857–2.335) 0.176 0.306 1.435 (0.870–2.428) 0.161 0.322
   Venous 2.694 (1.478–5.405) 0.003* 0.009* 2.604 (1.403–5.321) 0.004* 0.014*
BC per SD increase
   Arterial 1.258 (0.774–2.080) 0.354 0.455 1.321 (0.810–2.217) 0.271 0.378
   Venous 3.220 (1.791–6.507) <0.001* <0.001* 3.214 (1.768–6.600) <0.001* <0.001*
AF per SD increase
   Arterial 1.080 (0.659–1.761) 0.754 0.798 1.051 (0.643–1.714) 0.839 0.888
   Venous 0.825 (0.464–1.380) 0.483 0.580 0.750 (0.416–1.265) 0.306 0.393
OR per SD increase
   Arterial 1.302 (0.799–2.190) 0.298 0.425 1.357 (0.821–2.310) 0.235 0.378
   Venous 2.959 (1.651–5.890) 0.001* 0.009* 2.895 (1.609–5.800) 0.001* 0.009*
CRAE per SD increase 0.661 (0.378–1.105) 0.125 0.272 0.733 (0.410–1.268) 0.273 0.378
CRVE per SD increase 1.112 (0.677–1.844) 0.674 0.758 1.083 (0.656–1.804) 0.755 0.849

Model 1: adjusted for age and sex; Model 2: Model 1 plus additional adjustment for hypertension. Significant findings after logistic regression (P<0.05; q<0.05) are marked with asterisk. AF, asymmetry factor; BA, branching angle; BC, branching coefficient; CRAE, central retinal artery equivalent; CRVE, central retinal vein equivalent; Density, vessel density; FD, fractal dimension; FDR, false discovery rate; OR, optimal ratio; SO2, oxygen saturation.

Optimization of RF classifier and performance enhancement through combined retinal vascular feature analysis

Using retinal vascular functional SO2 and structural features extracted from fundus images, and demographic information as comprehensive input, we applied the RF classifier to distinguish between stroke and control groups. We first conducted a parameter significance analysis using the RF classifier to determine the contribution of each parameter to the classification task. This analysis was essential for refining our parameter set to those with a significance level of 0.05 or higher. As detailed in Figure 5, significant parameters such as arterial SO2, blood pressure, venous BA, venous SO2, CRAE, gender, arterial density, and venous BC were identified. This refined subset of parameters, demonstrating higher classification importance, was then utilized in subsequent classification models.

Figure 5 Parameter significance analysis using Random Forest classifier. The horizontal bar chart illustrates the significance of different input features as determined by the RF classifier. Features are sorted in descending order of importance. The y-axis has been inverted to position the most significant feature at the top. The x-axis represents the significance values. Feature importance values are labeled next to each bar. The figure provides insights into the relative importance of input features in the classification process. Arterial SO2, venous SO2, venous BA, venous BC, and CRAE are the arterial SO2, venous SO2, venous branching angle, venous branching coefficient, and central retinal arterial equivalent, correspondingly. BA, branching angle; BC, branching coefficient; CRAE, central retinal arterial equivalent; RF, random forest; SO2, oxygen saturation.

For the quantitative assessment of our classification strategy, we relied on the metrics outlined in Table 4. Qualitatively, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, as illustrated in Figure 6. When examining the functional features alone, the RF classifier achieved an accuracy of 78.70%±1.81%. Structural features on their own yielded a slightly higher accuracy of 79.81%±2.89%. However, when we combined both functional SO2 and structural features, the classifier’s accuracy notably increase to 81.96%±3.78%.

Table 4

Classification results using random forest for stroke and control groups

Metrics Functional Structural Functional & structural
Accuracy, % 78.70±1.81 79.81±2.89 81.96±3.78
F1 score, % 71.38±2.56 73.60±5.00 74.52±3.52
Precision, % 75.76±4.29 78.01±9.69 83.61±3.07
Recall, % 67.52±1.21 73.50±15.47 67.95±12.07
AUC, % 88.61±2.44 87.15±5.02 89.46±4.57

All metrics are expressed as mean ± standard deviation from threefold cross-validation. Combining both vascular functional and structural features, random forest outperforms these two features used alone. ‘Functional’ indicates input including arterial SO2 and venous SO2, while ‘Structural’ signifies input including central retinal arterial equivalent, arterial density, venous branching angle, and venous branching coefficient. AUC, area under the curve; SO2, oxygen saturation.

Figure 6 Random Forest classification results of stroke versus control groups based on vascular features. (A) Classification using functional features. (B) Classification using structural features. (C) Classification using both functional and structural features. All panels display ROC curves from threefold cross-validation, where curves 1–3 represent results on each validation fold. The combined model (C) demonstrates superior classification performance compared to models using functional (A) or structural (B) features alone. AUC, area under the curve; ROC, receiver operating characteristic.

Discussion

Our study reveals significant differences in retinal blood vessel characteristics among stroke subtypes and the control group. Our novel use of retinal SO2 analysis in stroke patients highlights correlations between reduced arterial vessel density, altered arteriovenous networks, and increased venous BA with stroke risk. Integrating functional (SO2 level) and structural features significantly improved stroke classification accuracy, with a refined RF classifier reaching 81.96%±3.78% accuracy.

Comparison of ischemic and control group

In our comparison between the ischemic and control groups, logistic regression revealed a significant positive correlation between retinal artery SO2 and ischemic stroke, even after adjusting for blood pressure. However, retinal vein SO2 didn’t exhibit a significant relationship after this adjustment. The higher SO2 in retinal vessels within the ischemic group might be due to various factors like thinner retinal nerve fiber layers affecting oxygen uptake or concentration gradients between retinal artery and vein (25,26).

We assessed retinal structural features using global geometric parameters like FD, density, tortuosity, and caliber. Adjusted logistic regression showed significant negative associations between arteriovenous FD and ischemic stroke, aligning with previous findings (27). Reduction in vascular FD may indicate vessel narrowing linked to hypoxia, potentially associated with brain-related pathological processes such as atherosclerosis (28). Moreover, after blood pressure adjustment, arterial vessel density was significantly negatively associated with ischemic stroke. These anomalies in retinal arterial FD and density might correspond to cerebrovascular abnormalities, impacting vascular perfusion and the blood-brain barrier, which ultimately contributes to ischemic damage in the cerebral vasculature.

In analyzing retinal vessel branching patterns, only venous BA in the ischemic group was significantly higher than in controls, possibly due to intracerebral infarction affecting blood supply based on the assumption proposed by Murray (29). Moreover, despite our logistic regression analysis showing no significant correlation between the increase of venous BA and the occurrence of stroke, it is noteworthy that when comparing the mean odds ratio to 1, we observed a trend consistent with another study (27).

Comparison of hemorrhagic and control group

In comparing the hemorrhagic stroke group to controls, logistic regression analysis did not show significant odds ratios for arterial and venous SO2 levels, both before and after adjusting for blood pressure. Limited research on retinal oxygen levels post-hemorrhagic stroke suggests the need to understand the underlying compensatory mechanisms.

Regarding retinal structure analysis, hemorrhagic stroke consistently correlated with reduced arterial and venous FD in logistic regression, even after adjusting for blood pressure. Arterial vessel density consistently displayed a negative association with hemorrhagic stroke, while venous vessel density showed this connection after adjusting for blood pressure. The influence of blood pressure on retinal venous density in hemorrhagic stroke underscores its significance, although specific reasons require further exploration. Importantly, in analyzing retinal vessel CRAE and CRVE in hemorrhagic stroke, logistic regression revealed a significant association between decreased CRAE, increased CRVE, and hemorrhagic stroke. This aligns with existing literature focusing on retinal vessel caliber in hemorrhagic stroke, suggesting potential mechanisms like retinal hypoxia and endothelial dysfunction contributing to retinal venular dilation (13,15,30).

In assessing branching patterns, logistic regression revealed a significant positive correlation between venous BA, BC, OR, and hemorrhagic stroke. These venous irregularities imply an influence of hemorrhagic stroke on retinal venous branching patterns. Adhering to Murray’s principle of minimum work, the human circulatory system’s branching adheres to optimal design principles (31). Deviations from this in retinal vasculature branching might lead to microcirculatory impairment, increased shear stress, and pathogenesis. These anomalies may signify underlying vascular damage.

Hemorrhagic vs. ischemic stroke: contrasting vascular features with control groups

Our exploratory analyses comparing retinal vascular patterns between hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke subtypes revealed preliminary insights into shared and divergent vascular pathophysiology. While both subtypes exhibited overlapping associations with reduced arterial vessel density, diminished arteriovenous FD, and increased venous BA—suggesting common pathways of microvascular dysfunction—distinct trends emerged in parameters such as arteriovenous vessel density and arterial BA. For instance, venous BA showed stronger associations with hemorrhagic stroke (odds ratio =2.604, q value =0.014) compared to ischemic stroke (odds ratio =2.066, q value =0.066), while CRVE trends diverged between subtypes.

However, these comparisons should be interpreted with caution due to important limitations. The modest sample size of stroke subgroups limits the robustness of observed associations and reduces the ability to detect subtle differences between subtypes. Additionally, while hemorrhagic and ischemic strokes were analyzed as unified clinical categories in this study, their inherent pathophysiological heterogeneity may introduce unmeasured variability in retinal vascular signatures. We emphasize that these analyses are exploratory, designed to generate hypotheses rather than establish definitive mechanistic distinctions. Future studies with larger cohorts and granular phenotyping of stroke mechanisms are needed to validate and extend these preliminary findings.

Insights into stroke classification based on retinal vascular biomarkers

Our study harnessed the RF classifier to distinguish between stroke and control groups based on retinal functional SO2 levels and structural features extracted from fundus images. A parameter significance analysis identified key contributors to classification as illustrated in Figure 5. When considering these crucial functional, structural, and demographic features as input for the RF classifier, it achieved accuracies of 78.70%±1.81% with functional parameters alone, 79.81%±2.89% with structural features alone, and notably improved to 81.96%±3.78% when both functional SO2 and structural features were combined. The ROC curves showed superior classification ability with combined features, signifying the value of integrating diverse data types for more accurate predictions, crucial in medical diagnostics and stroke risk assessment, as illustrated in Figure 6. Rather than supporting immediate clinical implementation, our findings provide preliminary evidence that comprehensive retinal feature sets may merit further investigation as adjunctive biomarkers in stroke risk assessment.

Delving into vascular structural features, we identified their complementary role, adding sophistication to our stroke classification. Remarkably, significant differences in BA, a structural parameter, between stroke groups and the normal control group played a pivotal role in enhancing the overall classification performance. On the contrary, parameters such as CRAE did not exhibit significant differences between the stroke and control groups, yet their inclusion paradoxically contributed to improved classification performance.

This study not only contributes to the field by achieving precise stroke classification but also underscores the potential of blood vessel features as reliable biomarkers for cerebrovascular health. This first demonstration of combined structural-SO2 analysis in stroke reveals previously unexamined vascular relationships, though their clinical significance requires confirmation through longitudinal multi-center studies.

The distinct technical emphases of optical coherence tomography angiography (OCT-A) and the OT-110M system underscore their complementary yet non-interchangeable roles in retinal vascular assessment. OCT-A excels in high-resolution cross-sectional imaging of specific retinal microvascular layers, such as the superficial and deep capillary plexuses, within a limited scan area (typically 3 mm × 3 mm to 12 mm × 12 mm). While this capability enables detailed structural evaluation of localized vascular networks, it inherently restricts the detection of large-scale vascular patterns relevant to systemic conditions like stroke. In contrast, the OT-110M prioritizes functional and structural assessment by quantifying retinal vessel SO2 through spectral analysis of hemoglobin absorption—a biomarker inaccessible to OCT-A’s perfusion-based imaging. This functional divergence, combined with the OT-110M’s capacity for broader vascular coverage, renders OCT-A unsuitable as a gold standard for comparative analysis in this study. Rather, the two modalities address fundamentally different aspects of vascular pathophysiology: OCT-A captures microarchitectural details, whereas the OT-110M provides hemodynamic insights at a spatially comprehensive scale. Nevertheless, future research may benefit from integrating the strengths of both OCT-A and the OT-110M to develop a more holistic approach to retinal vascular assessment, potentially enhancing our understanding of cerebrovascular diseases.

Limitations

There are several limitations in this study. First, the generalizability of our findings may be constrained by the moderate sample size and the regional/ethnic homogeneity of the cohort. Second, the absence of longitudinal data limits our ability to track retinal biomarker dynamics in stroke progression or recovery. Most critically, the current sample size precluded subtype-specific analyses (e.g., cardioembolic vs. small vessel in ischemic stroke). Further subdivision of the dataset would have compromised statistical power. Future studies with expanded cohorts will prioritize granular subtyping to disentangle pathophysiology-specific retinal signatures.


Conclusions

This study identifies distinct retinal vascular features in stroke subtypes, demonstrating that integrating functional (SO2) and structural features significantly enhances classification accuracy. Notably, while hemorrhagic and ischemic strokes share some retinal vascular markers, subtype-specific divergence in branching patterns reveals distinct pathological mechanisms. These results indicate that retinal biomarkers could offer potential value in stratifying stroke risk. Further research could yield insights into other cerebrovascular disorders.


Acknowledgments

None.


Footnote

Reporting Checklist: The authors have completed the STROBE reporting checklist. Available at https://qims.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/qims-2024-2712/rc

Funding: This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (No. 2021YFC2401402), and the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (No. BK20231214).

Conflicts of Interest: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form (available at https://qims.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/qims-2024-2712/coif). The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

Ethical Statement: The authors are accountable for all aspects of the work in ensuring that questions related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of the work are appropriately investigated and resolved. This study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki and its subsequent amendments. The study was approved by ethics committee of The First Affiliated Hospital of University of Science and Technology of China (No. 2020-KYLS-167). The study was registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (URL: https://www.chictr.org.cn/index; Unique identifier: ChiCTR2000038731). Written informed consent was obtained either from the participants or, in cases where participants lacked capacity, from their legal guardians.

Open Access Statement: This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), which permits the non-commercial replication and distribution of the article with the strict proviso that no changes or edits are made and the original work is properly cited (including links to both the formal publication through the relevant DOI and the license). See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.


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Cite this article as: Chen K, Zhang Y, Gao W, Liu H, Liu J, Xu RX, Wu M, Sun M. Stroke subtypes risk prediction and detection using retinal vascular structure and oxygen saturation analysis. Quant Imaging Med Surg 2025;15(6):5232-5246. doi: 10.21037/qims-2024-2712

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